PENGARUH KAPASITAS FISKAL DAN BELANJA MODAL TERHADAP TINGKAT KEMISKINAN: KONTRIBUSI TERHADAP CAPAIAN SDG 1 PADA PEMERINTAH PROVINSI DI INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25170/jak.v20i2.8287Keywords:
fiscal capacity, capital expenditure, poverty rate, SDG 1, financial accountability, PLS-SEMAbstract
This study aims to analyze the effects of fiscal capacity and capital expenditure on the poverty rate, an inverse indicator of the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1, and to examine the mediating role of financial accountability in Indonesian provincial governments. This study uses a quantitative approach with panel data covering 34 provinces over the 2020–2024 period (N=170). The research data were obtained from the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance (DJPK) of the Ministry of Finance, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), and the semester audit reports (IHPS) of the Audit Board of the Republic of Indonesia (BPK RI). The analysis was conducted using Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) with SmartPLS 4.0. The results show that fiscal capacity and capital expenditure have a significant negative effect on the poverty rate, indicating a meaningful contribution to achieving SDG Goal 1. Financial accountability, based on BPK audit opinions, has no significant effect on the poverty rate and does not mediate the relationship between fiscal variables and poverty. The model has good predictive ability (R²=0.591) and an appropriate model fit (SRMR=0.071; NFI=0.935; BIC=−121.999). Strengthening fiscal independence and improving the quality of capital expenditure are strategic instruments for accelerating progress toward SDG Goal 1. Financial accountability needs to be developed from a reporting orientation to performance- and outcome-based accountability.
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