Agen Based Modeling for Corn Supply Chain Risks Identification and Sales Negotiation in PTPN VIII

Abstract

PTPN VIII is a state-owned company in West Java cultivating several kinds of
commodities, and still have three marginal farmlands with a total size of 3000
hectares open for investment for corn. The type of corn that would be produced
is corn feed for poultry needs. Three agents are involved in this agent-based
model: the farmers (or cooperatives), PTPN VIII, and the buyers of the corn
yields. All agents face risks in doing their businesses which hamper or reduce
their probability of achieving their business goals. The potential risks are
identified using fuzzy reasoning method. The three blocks of farmland have
different levels of fertility. Farmers are expected to compete for the hunt of
farmland to rent for cultivating corns, until their funds run out. They must
prepare the land, procure their best corn seeds, plant and maintain the crops, and
eventually harvest, dry and sell their corn yield. The dryness of the corn grains
dictates the selling price. The buyers will buy the corns until their demands are
fulfilled for the particular season. There will be a negotiation process between
agents to reach an agreement. Each agent seeks to achieve its goal. This is why
agent-based modelling is employed. Netlogo software is used to develop the
model. Based on fuzzy reasoning method the obtained result shows that the most
potential risk is quality risk. The negotiation results show that when both buyer
and seller experience heightened degree of risk appetite, the shortest
negotiations are achieved.